1. Tokyo electoral district

The coalition cabinet, a cooperative effort of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Komeito and the Conservative Party, was denied strong representation in the Tokyo in last month’s election for the House of Representatives. Of the 25 single-seat constituencies in Tokyo, incumbent LDP members lost 16 seats while seven first-time candidates were elected.

Among the politicians with Cabinet experience who failed to be re-elected were Takashi Fukaya and Kaoru Yosano, the current and a former Minister of International Trade and Industry, as well as Michio Ochi, the previous Chief Financial Superintendent.

Voters demonstrated a distinct lack of confidence in the Mori cabinet. This was especially noticeable in Tokyo, where voters shunned the current coalition cabinet, made up of the LDP, the Komeito and the Conservative Party in favor of Democratic Party candidates.

However, this does not mean that voters want a coalition cabinet dominated by the Democratic Party. No one believes the Democratic Party has a policy superior to that of the current cabinet. Rather than a sign of support for its platform, voters chose the Democratic Party to demonstrate their lack of confidence and dissatisfaction with the LDP. The Democratic Party surpassed the LDP in all proportional representation sections in Tokyo.

2. New forces may challenge the ruling coalition

In addition to Democratic Party winners, an interesting array of candidates from other parties were also elected. These included Kensaku Morita, Koji Kakizawa and Katsuei Hirasawa, who oppose the current LDP-Komeito coalition cabinet. The three politicians left the LDP over their opposition to its policies and fought the election with the help of an independent group of supporters. Koji Kakizawa left the LDP over policy disagreements and ran as a candidate in last year’s election for the Governor of Tokyo. He ran in the recent House of Representatives election as an independent candidate. Kensaku Morita ran as an independent when his criticism of the LDP-Komeito coalition prevented him from being adopted as a candidate by the LDP. Katsuei Hirasawa ran as an LDP candidate. After winning a seat in the election, he announced his intention of remaining an LDP member while engaging in political activities without belonging to any particular faction within the party. As individualistic members of the assembly who definitely oppose the current LDP-Komeito-Conservative coalition cabinet, their victories are conspicuous. If these assembly members can establish a political group through cooperation with each other and successful independent candidates from other electoral districts, they may be able to exert significant influence among people opposed to the coalition cabinet.

3. The need for a political group capable of generating alternative policy

The political debate in this election campaign did not address the issues of interest to voters. All parties failed to address how financial restructuring can be reconciled with economic recovery. If the LDP-Komeito coalition cabinet cannot demonstrate its ability to manage the economy, another group capable of delivering an alternative plan will be required.

To satisfy peoples' expectations, each party involved in forming the new coalition cabinet should be policy-oriented. Any coalition cabinet dominated by the LDP will place limits on the impact generated by the Komeito, Conservative Party, Liberal Party or any other coalition partner. An LDP-Democratic Party coalition is out of the question. Japan’s governance of its economy will be at risk if the cabinet continues to proceed at its current snail-like pace. This potential was accented by the downgrading of Japanese government bonds immediately after the election.