Analysis

Where is Japan’s Conservative Influence Headed 28, January 2000

Apart from the chaos surrounding the WTO ministerial level meeting held in Seattle last November, a committee consisting of Upper and Lower House Diet members and chaired by Kabun Muto, former Director-General of the Management and Coordination Agency, was formed in December to oppose deregulation and protect small and midsize Japanese businesses. Shizuka Kamei, chairman of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s Policy Research Council, has taken a positive view of this action which is being seen as a new political stance for Japan’s conservative politicians. Furthermore, a constitution review committee has been established in the national assembly and Muto, Kamei, Ozawa and even Yukio Hatoyama of the opposition have all expressed a desire to review Japan’s constitution. Similar changes are also being seen among some of the non-conservative politicians. For example, Yohei Kono, the very man who had policies aimed at revising the constitution stricken from the Liberal Democratic Party’s platform several years ago, is now taking a very positive stance towards reviewing the existing constitution. At the meeting between G7 finance ministers held in Tokyo on January 22, Japan was strongly requested to take further deregulatory measures. Why is it that members of Japan’s political world, in particular conservative elements within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, are moving contrary to the wishes put forth by these advanced nations? All of these actions are said to be appeals by the politicians to their constituencies just before the next Lower House election, which will very likely take place just before or after the Okinawa Summit in July. In other words, these actions are all aimed at gathering votes. The conservative element that is currently so active in Japan’s political world is, for the most part, made up of Diet members from the local regions. These Diet members are particularly sensitive to small and midsize businesses and are unable to break away from the tradition of soliciting support from particular religious groups. According to our election analysis, the Liberal Democratic Party will very likely suffer crushing defeats in Tokyo, Kanagawa and other urban areas. However, it is still unlikely that the opposition Democratic Party of Japan will be able to extend it number of seats in the Diet. Depending on the electoral districts, it is possible for some candidates not affiliated with any political party to gain enough support to win the election. Currently Japan does not have the necessary capacity to fully correspond to international problems, and there are only a small handful of conservative politicians that have the ability to persuade the electorate. Therefore, it is ironic that the opinions of Shintaro Ishihara, the mayor of Tokyo famous for his anti-American bias, are being seen as representative of the opinions of Japan's conservative element. Japan is now faced with domestic political problems such as budget deficits, falling tax revenues, and a struggling economy. In addition, the country must also address international issues such as what role Japan must play in the wake of the WTO Seattle round, and how can functions of the IMF be improved. If a political group that is capable of grasping all of these　issues does not emerge from among the conservatives (this group would have to be centered mostly on Diet members elected in city elections), then Japan’s conservative element will impose very high risks on the markets of the world.

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