Analysis

Mounting Tensions between Japan and North Korea 13 August 1999

Ineffective Measures There is an increasing danger that North Korea will again launch a Taepondong missile in the direction of Japan sometime between late August and early September of this year. Roughly one year has passed since North Korea last fired a missile over Japan. During this one-year period, exactly what steps have been taken by the Japanese government to better ensure the nation's security? Since the first launching of the Korean missile in August of last year,ruling Liberal Democratic Party Diet members involved in foreign diplomacy and national defense have been actively working to secure the necessary funding for a Theater Missile Defense system. The Diet also quickly agreed that Japan should launch a spy satellite to be deployed in 2002. Most of the Japanese people felt that prompt measures were being taken to confront a dangerous situation, but in reality none of these measures have provided the nation with an effective means of preventing North Korea from launching another missile in our direction. Presently members of both the ruling and opposition parties involved in diplomacy and national defense have been considering amendments to the Foreign Exchange Law to prevent the illegal transfer of money to North Korea by Korean residents in Japan. Also, a few “big shot” politicians have hinted that they are handling the situation through unofficial diplomatic channels with North Korea. However, these actions do little to change the fact that Japan still does not have a suitable means of defense should North Korea decided to launch another missile. A Defense Expert’s Lament “When it comes to defense, politicians are typically only interested in the problem of munitions and give very little careful thought to the actual defense of the nations,” lamented a former general with Japan’s Ground Self Defense Forces when asked about the current situation with North Korea.The words of this general suggest that Japan has yet to take the necessary steps to meet this threat. Presently in Japan there are no civilian organizations to help assist in disaster protection and in the defense of the nation. In fact, even simple manuals for this purpose have not been created. These truths would probably come as a shock to American and European analysts of Japan. Questionable Security Debate The mass media in Japan must also share in the blame for creating an environment in which defense is thought of only in terms of the munitions problem. Debate among security specialist in Japan until now has been almost exclusively from the perspective of geopolitics and military technology.Most of the debate has lacked any real sense of balance. However, against this background, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs began to organize a group to research international economics and financial systems. This has presented an excellent opportunity to develop fresh approaches to national security from international finance and other viewpoints. It is disheartening to think that greedy Japanese trading companies are in a position to see improved business due to the situation brought about by the North Korean missile launching. The fact of the matter is that if North Korea were to launch a missile at Japan, we would have to rely on the U.S.military to launch a counter-attack on the missile launching facilities.Japan is currently in a state in which it would be unable to defend itself from a North Korean missile attack without the existence of the U.S.military. Watching China’s Behind the Scenes Maneuvering Many politicians in both the ruling and opposition parties can not indicate a clear stance regarding diplomacy with North Korea because they have a close relationship with the communist state regarding marine products, fishing rights, and even rights to pachinko game machines. Against this setting, these politicians also have close ties with China. In order to improve the political instability griping Northeast Asia, Japan must assess its fragile defense system, take better steps that will have an immediate effect, and take steps on the political front to reduce risks facing the country. Presently in Japan economic considerations take precedent over security and　other political issues, and overseas investor just barely qualifies as a target for Japanese investment.Moreover, these economic considerations outweigh any political risks in Japan arising from defense issues. Therefore,in view of reducing the security risk of Japan and Northeast Asia area,we must not forget the necessity of American troops stations in Japan. Summary of Main Points Japan does not have any effective means to defend itself if North Korea decides to launch another missile. Most politicians think of national defense only in terms of munitions rights. Many politicians in both the ruling and opposition parties have close ties with both North Korea and China regarding fishing and other rights and so are unable to take a definitive stance against either country. At the very least, Japan must make plans on the political front to reduce risks as much as possible.

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