Analysis

Struggles behind Forming a Coalition Government 17 July 1999

Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi has been actively trying to add the New Komeito Party to the coalition government formed between the Liberal Party and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The prime minister believes that the formation of such a coalition could prove to be a prudent political tactic ahead of the late-September election to chose the leader of the LDP. A leading proponent of such an expanded coalition has been chief cabinet secretary Hiromu Nonaka. However, now that the Diet has passed a set of hotly debated bills amending Japan-U.S. defense cooperation guidelines, a coalition between these three parties seems to take on less importance. The Liberal Party and the New Komeito Party have been at odds over election system bills that would reduce the number of seats in the House of Representative. These arguments helped to bring about the political realignment explained below. Diet members within the LDP, particularly the conservatives, opposed to a tie-up with the New Komeito Party are largely responsible for the recent actions of the Liberal Party and for the strong likelihood of a future alliance between the LDP and Liberal Party. There has even been some talk by LDP diet members that Liberal Party leader Ichiro Ozawa may have secret designs on taking over the coalition government after Prime Minister Obuchi leaves office. Such a scenario is not all together impossible, but Ozawa would need the backing of members within the Democratic Party (most likely former Japan Democratic Socialist Party members). Within the main opposition Democratic Party, Naoto Kan, Yukio Hatoyama,and Tsutomu Hata are in competition with each other to become the next head of the party, and Takahiro Yokomichi may even form an independent group. Former LDP secretary-general Koichi Kato is believed to be using these movements within the Democratic Party to discretely expand his own political power. Kato, who plans challenge Obuchi for head of the LDP in the September election, has opposed the inclusion of the Liberal Party and the New Komei Party and so a coalition with the Democratic Party is vital for his interests. However, changes in the state of world affairs or a slowdown in the domestic economy from September will have a strong influence on this balance of political power.If Obuchi wins reelection, Kato will most likely be assigned to the Finance Ministry as a measure to bolster economic policy. In this case,the second supplementary budget expected out around October will likely not be received as a fresh and innovative policy. The budget will not be criticized as being "too late", but it will most likely be seen as being"too little". If North Korea decides to launch another missile over Japan, or if problems arise that impact international financial markets, the Obuchi administration will be forced to pursue emergency and economic measures and will once again find itself scrambling to form a new coalition government.

Related article link ・Japan's Pioneering Spirit（12,August 1997） ・Does a new coalition government come up to our expectation?　(13,December 1998) ・Destiny of Obuchi government (13,August 1998）

** These reports and analyses are produced by the sole responsibility of JIPR
and the copyright of these reports and analyses belongs to JIPR.**