Analysis 　

Shock Waves from the Ishihara Election

From Nagata Ward to Kasumigaseki, everyone in Tokyo is talking about Shintaro Ishihara's victory in last month's Tokyo gubernatorial election, and just what impact his victory will have on the future of Japanese politics. Many are saying that the results from this election can serve as an indicator of how the electorate will vote in the next lower house elections. Others are saying that the results can be used to predict changes within central Japanese political circles.

One diet member that rose through the ranks of the bureaucracy offered the following analysis of the recent Tokyo gubernatorial race: "The majority of those voting for Ishihara were supporters of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, and the remaining voters simply cast their ballots for Ishihara based on his name recognition or because he was the hot topic of conversation at the time."

However, this point of view is not necessarily accurate. It can not be denied that supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party are splintered. However, if the supporters of the LDP were not splintered, I think it would have been almost impossible for Ishihara to have won this election.

Metropolitan and Local Elections

In Tokyo the LDP, Komeito, Communist and Democratic parties are continuously competing for a fixed number of supporters. However, the vast majority of voters do not support any particular political party.

There are basically two patterns behind successful urban elections. In one pattern, various political parties with existing support bases compromise in the selection of one candidate who they then propel to victory through a process of organized voting. In the second pattern, a candidate affiliated with a particular party uses his party's support base while fostering support from the undecided voters to win the election. These two patterns are seen in the vast majority of regional elections.

However, still fresh in our minds is the victory four years ago of Mr. Aoshima who won the Tokyo gubernatorial race without being affiliated with any political party, but by simply capturing the majority of the elusive votes from independent voters. The Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party, which backed former bureaucrat Nobuo Ishihara during that election, were handed a bitter defeat.

In Tokyo, the important considerations in the last election were programs to reform administration and finance as well as budget allocation. (This will probably be the case in future elections as well). Ironically, this is not the case with regional elections. In regional elections, the deciding factor is just how much public works and subsidies can the candidate gain for the region. However, the fact that the Communist party, which has stressed cutting public works spending, was able to gain 196 seats during the last unified local elections is very noteworthy.

Irresponsible Nationalism

Overseas media has been producing a stream of commentaries warning of the reckless nationalist that has become governor of Tokyo. The foreign media has based their descriptions on the past words and actions of Mr.Ishihara.

In terms of the total amount of Official Development Assistance (ODA) provided, Japan is already playing a major role throughout the world, and yet there are still calls around the globe for Japan, as a developed nation, to do more to help stabilize the economies of the Asian region. This being the case, it is not surprising that foreign media has become very cautious about Mr. Ishihara's insistence on holding grudges over events from the past and his reactionary opinions regarding the U.S. and others.

Mr. Ishihara has won the support of the electorate, but he still appears to be ill prepared for his new post in terms of financial and administrative issues, what concrete strategies and programs he hopes to implement, and how he plans to handle the Tokyo assembly and bureaucrats.

Unfortunately, the problems now facing Tokyo are not those that can be solved simply by invoking some misplaced sense of nationalism. The same can also be said for the national government. Over asserting ones opinions regarding international problems without any concern for the people involved is irresponsible. Mr. Ishihara should instead devote himself to carrying out the reforms desperately needed in Tokyo.