Point at issue is financial problems

　The Tokyo gubernatorial election in the next month on April 11th holds a strong potential for changing the central political world regardless of its result. An analysis of its background will be given below.
　The points at issue in the Tokyo gubernatorial election have been concentrating on the financial problem of the metropolitan government. 　
　Knowing that what influences the result of the election are independent voters who have no particular political party to bring the governor Aoshima booming four years ago, each candidate is desperately seeking to get the votes of independent voters.　On the other hand, the Liberal Democratic Party ended up deciding not to select a candidate for the Osaka gubernatorial election in April. For the LDP it is hard to expect victories in two large metropolises of Tokyo and Osaka.
　In the last year's election for the members of the House of Councilors, losing both of two candidates including an incumbent councilor, the LDP lost their seats for the LDP councilors from Tokyo.
　Also in the election for the members of the metropolitan assembly in July,1997, the LDP lost many seats in the assembly due to remarkable progress made by the Communist Party and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). That is, it means that the LDP only has 1/4 of the voters support. And the DPJ, the Komei Party and the Communist Party hold other quarters of the votes, respectively. The Tokyo gubernatorial election is hotly contested. However, as far as the financial problem goes, the problem of Tokyo will obviously has a repercussion in the national government.
　The reason for focusing on the financial problem originally came from the situation where the tax revenue that lay a foundation for the metropolitan government's finance dropped with a 12.4% decrease, a decrease of 57.51 billion yen, in comparison to that in the previous fiscal year because of the decline in tax revenue due to recession.
　And the problem of how to manage the total sum of the finance of the metropolitan government with as much as 12,320.9 billion yen has become directly related to the problem of which part of the finance should be curtailed.

The Tokyo gubernatorial election is the epitome of the reorganization of the political world.

　However, unique plans tend to lead to the collision between the Ministry of Home Affairs and the central ministries and government offices about the dispute on taxes. The problem of the metropolitan government becomes closely related to that of the central government.
　In a dispute on the budget, a majority of interests will be focused on the problem of where to curtail the budget rather than how to improve the service. This dispute will surely become a matter of life and death for organizations and industrial worlds which live on grants. These organizations and industrial worlds will become active in supporting the candidates who defend their interests.

　Therefore, the fixed base of support coming from small and medium companies, self-employed persons, persons engaged in commerce and industry and workers who form a foundation for such parties as the DPJ and the Komei Party will tend to agree with the curtailing of the budget as long as the curtailing of the budget does not affect their interests.　However, the fixed base will not like candidates who come out with a drastic reform. On the one hand, putting higher priority on welfare budget assigned to labor unions and the elderly, the Japan Communist Party focuses its attack point in curtailing of the expenditure on the public utilities. The Japan Communist Party is aiming at attracting the unspecified base of support.　On the other hand, a group of people such as businessmen and house wives who feel dissatisfied with the amount of service received from the metropolitan government in comparison to the amount of money they are taken away as tax and qualified voters who are no longer attracted by the way current political parties managed will support candidates who do not have any political affiliation but have drastic reform plans and give an impression that these drastic reforming plans are feasible. If a large number of votes from businessmen and house wives can be obtained, those qualified voters who are dissatisfied with the current elections may be directed toward a civil movement centered around tax payers in urban areas just like Italy. Such a trend may perhaps expand further by involving supporters who are dissatisfied with the current parties.
　Lastly, if I were to simulate some of the cases, the following would be the results of them.

(1) If Mr. Yoichi Masuzoe or Mr. Koji Kakizawa wins the election, the political impact on both the LDP and the DPJ is expected to be large, and the political power structure in the metropolitan area will be drastically changed.

(2) If Mr. Yasushi Akashi wins the election, the connection between the LDP and the Komei Party will become strengthened both at the metropolitan assembly and at central government, and the Komei Party will become a key element in political operations.

(3) If Mr. Shintaro Ishihara wins the election, conservative faction in the LDP who are dissatisfied with the executives of the LDP will have a political power.

(4) If Mr. Man Mikami wins the election, the political impact on the government and non-government parties is expected to be large. With this power, the Communist Party will drastically increase the number of seats in the next election for the members of the House of Representatives.

　The financial problem will not easily be solved by the victory of any of the candidates. The problem faced by people in Tokyo is very large, and this can have a large influence on the qualified local voters in the local autonomic body. The financial problem will surely surface as a nation-level task. Victory of any of candidates other than Mr.Akashi will bring about a change in the political system of Japan.