1.	Analysis view point of the coalition government formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Liberal Party

　There was an active political movement to form a coalition government formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Liberal Party before President Clinton's visit to Japan. Politicians such as Ichiro Ozawa, Seiroku Kajiyama and Shizuka Kamei are increasing their political power.

　So far, since the establishment of the coalition government formed by the Liberal Democratic Party, the New Party Sakigake and the Social Democratic Pary, the new leaders of so-called "YKK," Kouichi Kato, Junichiro Koizumi and Taku Yamazaki, have been holding political power in the ruling party.

　However, now that the Liberal Democratic Party and the Liberal Party are in collaboration with each other, the YKK leaders are expected to change their position from the mainstream faction to the anti-mainstream faction. To turn around this situation, the YKK leaders are daily holding meetings at Nagata-cho to gather their support.

　What is the cause of sudden acceleration in political reorganization? We would like to examine the causes.

　The first cause that we have to understand is the problem that bills　related to the security treaty, which include "Guideline Bills" and which are closely related to Okinawa Issue and Korean Peninsula Issue, have not made any progresses.

　The most dangerous situation surrounding current Japan is the situation of Korean Peninsula. It became clear that Japanese side's Crisis Management System did not work effectively to the ballistic missile fired toward Japan from North Korea on August 31st. If we leave the situation as it is now not knowing what to do about it, it is becoming increasingly likely that the worst scenario may happen.

　If the Liberal Democratic Party is to emphasize the adjustment of opinion with the opposition parties such as the Democratic Party as the first priority, it would take too long. To cope with the situation, Chief Secretary, Hiromu Nonaka and Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, Yoshirou Mori came up with a scheme in which both of them are taking the initiative to create a way to enable the approval of the bills by the administration of the Diet in collaboration with the Liberal Party.　

　Even with the collaboration with the Democratic Party, the number of seats in the House of Councilors does not reach the majority. To counter this situation, the coalition government decided to take the gift-certificates concept proposed by the Koumei Party without criticism in exchange for the cooperation of the Koumei Party in the House of Councilors.

　However, what is more important for the politicians is the budget. What we are talking about here is the issue of drawing up a budget after the next fiscal year. We cannot overlook lightly the fact that a struggle for obtaining posts that associate with concessions related to the budget is now becoming fierce.

　According to reports of Japan's journalism, it is often said that the coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Liberal Party establishes the division between the New Conservative Faction and the Social Democratic Faction. However, this does not explain everything.

　That is, the point is that the group lead by Mr. Yohei Kono who is in

opposition to Former Secretary-General Kouichi Kato within the same faction (Kouchi - Kai; Miyazawa fuction) is taking part in the group that supports Mr. Seiroku Kajiyama against the background of the reorganization of the Liberal Democratic Party's factions.

　The members of the Diet who are affiliated with the Kono group are the politicians who have been severely opposed to the like of Mr. Kamei in terms of ideological issues such as the constitution issue and the army sex slave issue. They cannot be classified as the "New Conservative faction" in terms of their political and ideological belief.

　They are supporting Mr. Kajiyama through the relationship of political dynamics. How can we analyze this phenomenon. When we focus our attention to the issue of securing the budget as politician's political behavior, we may be able to understand the essential meaning of the movement.

　That is to say, the administration of the Diet that centering around the task of adjustment of opinion with the opposing parties such as the Democratic Party so far would not allow the budget distribution that is convenient for them.
　

　For example, when in cooperation with the opposition parties the members of the Diet could not always take part in the process of drawing up the budget of "Public Works Expenses" to make it convenient for their electoral districts. However, with the coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, the distribution adjustment can progress smoothly since they were both the members of the Liberal Democratic Party few years back.

　Such a movement is unfolding in Nagata-cho with the background of a trend of giving way of the old factions to the new factions.

2.	Is it possible to achieve economic recovery with the coalition government formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Liberal Party?

　For example, the proposal to freeze the consumption tax as a means to achieve the recovery of economy is originally developed mainly by the Communist Party. However, since the Communist Party was ousted to form one of the opposition parties, which have small political power, an important policy proposal made by the Liberal Party of lowering the consumption tax from 5% to 3% became a focus of attention in public opinion.

　Upon the report of the possibility of the Liberal Party's participation in the government, the market made a prediction of possibility of audacious economic measures. The foreign investors showed their posture of "buying" Japanese stocks. However, when the adjustment made by Nagata-cho was slowly revealed to be old-style politics, the market is now not responding to that type of adjustment.

　Where does this disappointment come from?

　It has been all proven by the actual political situation that policy items espoused by a political party are not necessarily the same as the political behavior manifested by the members of the Diet who is affiliated with the party.

　During the term of office, the Finance Minister, Miyazawa revealed his idea that it is not necessary to change the consumption tax as he revealed before. Among the members of the ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party, the popularity of the same position as that of Mr.Miyazawa is spread among many of the members of the Diet related to the tax system.

　One of the greatest reasons for this popularity is because of the

instability of policy making power. Currently, since the majority is not taken the Liberal Democratic Part in the House of the Councilors, everybody in the authority of the policy maker believe that it would take too much efforts to administer the Diet and "persuade" the national opinion to bring up the tax rate once the tax rate is lowered.

To summarize, we can make the following prediction.

(1)	There will be little possibility that consumption tax will be lowered.
(2)	In the Diet, an environment in which bills such as the Guide Line Bill can pass through smoothly will be created.
(3)	It is difficult to hope for a strong political leadership in the cabinet even when the coalition government is formed.
(4)	The support of the nation will not increase. In the metropolitan area, there will be many voters who do not have their supporting party.

　
Related article link

・	Why can not we boost the effective domestic demand ? ; Structural challenges of the government budgets reform(12,February 1998)
・	Destiny of Obuchi government (13,August 1998）
・	Development and Structure of Reorganization of　Political World (13,September 1998)